Explaining the National Assessment of Educational Progress 2013-2015 Mathematics Decline

This project was submitted in response to EHR Core Research (ECR) program announcement NSF 15-509. The ECR program of fundamental research in STEM education provides funding in critical research areas that are essential, broad and enduring. EHR seeks proposals that will help synthesize, build and/or expand research foundations in the following focal areas: STEM learning, STEM learning environments, STEM workforce development, and broadening participation in STEM. The ECR program is distinguished by its emphasis on the accumulation of robust evidence to inform efforts to (a) understand, (b) build theory to explain, and (c) suggest interventions (and innovations) to address persistent challenges in STEM interest, education, learning, and participation. In 2015, average mathematics scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) declined in fourth and eighth grades, the first declines in mathematics at these grade levels since 1990. Declines in U.S. mathematics performance has important implications for overall STEM education as well as STEM workforce and international competitiveness. Researchers at Rutgers University will conduct an analysis to isolate the cause of the mathematics decline by investigating the dimensionality of the NAEP assessment, state-level outcomes, and demographic trends. The team will use multilevel item response theory modeling techniques to investigate the declines by examining the factor structures to determine dimensionality across years. Researchers will examine subscores corresponding to each dimension of the factor structure at the state and national levels. In addition, subscores will be examined for trends in individual states and jurisdictions. Potentially, the analyses will allow for examination of factors related to state standards adoptions, demographic shifts, and participation rates.

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